The aging population:
According to a Pew Research Center analysis of the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2019 report, the main reasons for the slowdown in population growth are declining birth rates and an aging population.
Aging population:
The global population aged 65 and over is growing faster than the younger cohort.
Data from World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision shows that by 2050, 1 in 6 people in the world will be over the age of 65 (16%), up from 11 in 2019 ( 9%); by 2050, 1 in 4 people in Europe and North America will be 65 years or older. In 2018, the number of people aged 65 or over globally surpassed the number of people under the age of 5 for an unprecedented time. In addition, the population aged 80 or over is expected to triple from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.
Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said an inverted age structure (more older than younger) would have a whole host of negative consequences, creating a huge social shift.
Drivers of an ageing population
The size and age structure of a population is determined by three demographic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration.
Life expectancy has increased significantly in all regions since 1950. As life expectancy at birth increases, the reduction in mortality in the elderly has a growing impact on overall lifespan extension.
Decreasing fertility and increasing longevity are key factors affecting the aging of the global population, and in some countries and regions, international migration will also affect changes in the age structure of the population. In countries experiencing large migration flows, international migration can at least temporarily slow down the ageing process, as migrants tend to be young people of working age. However, migrants who remain at home will still end up in the elderly population.
Birth rate decreased:
By 2100, 183 of 195 countries and territories will have fertility rates below replacement levels, according to projections published last year in The Lancet by an international team of scientists.
Their modelling shows a particularly steep population decline in China, which is projected to drop from 1.41 billion today to about 730 million by 2100. If this happens, the population pyramid flips. China will no longer support fewer retirees based on younger workers, and there will be as many 85-year-olds as there are 18-year-olds.
Demographers point out that the total fertility rate, or the number of children an average woman of childbearing age has, is declining. If this number drops below 2.1, the overall size of the population will begin to decline. "This change may take decades to occur, but once it begins, the population decline will spiral exponentially." The New York Times said.
But at present, the total fertility rate in many countries simply does not reach this level. Birth rates in countries such as the United States, Australia and Canada hover between 1.5 and 2. In populous countries such as India and Mexico, the total fertility rate has also fallen or is falling below 2.1.
Among developed countries, South Korea has become a typical case. In 2019, South Korea's fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 0.92, the lowest among developed countries. This means that, on average, every Korean woman has less than one child.
Falling birth rates and rapid industrialization have polarized South Korean society as more South Koreans move from rural towns to big cities. In big cities like Seoul, population growth is putting enormous pressure on infrastructure and housing, but in rural towns, schools and amusement parks are overgrown. At present, non-elite universities, especially those outside Seoul, are already full of students, and the number of 18-year-old students in South Korea has dropped from 900,000 in 1992 to 500,000.
In order to increase the birth rate, the government has introduced prenatal cash subsidies, which will receive 2 million won per child from 2022, but with little effect. Kim Mi-kyung, a 38-year-old stay-at-home mother, said: "It's not worth having a lot of children, all things considered."
The same goes for Italy, thousands of miles away. The small town of Capracotta in southern Italy has transformed a kindergarten into a nursing home. Another town, Agnone, which closed its maternity ward 10 years ago, has seen just six babies born this year. In Germany, thousands of houses have been razed and turned into parks.
Census data released this month in China and the United States also showed that population growth in both countries is continuing to slow. The U.S. population has grown by 7.4% over the past 10 years, the second-lowest growth rate in U.S. history and only better than during the Great Depression.
global fertility rate
National Policies: Coping with Negative Population Growth
South Korea is pushing for university mergers; Japan, which sells more adult diapers than baby diapers, is consolidating cities with shrinking populations; and Sweden has begun shifting resources from schools to elderly care centers. Delayed retirement has been put on the agenda in many countries around the world. Germany has previously raised the retirement age to 67 years old and is now considering raising it to 69 years old.
In recent years, Germany's fertility rate has risen from 1.3 in 2006 to 1.54 recently, after expanding coverage of childcare and paid parental leave. The once declining German city of Leipzig is now growing again after downsizing and making the city more attractive.
There are also some countries that encourage people to have children and give various subsidies and incentives. For example, the Swedish government not only allows mothers to take maternity leave, but also legislates that fathers can also take maternity leave. If both parents take a total of 480 days, 240 days of maternity leave for each parent can also receive a bonus. In addition, children can enjoy financial subsidies from birth until the age of 16.
The Danish government also stipulates that financial subsidies can be obtained from the birth of a child until the age of 18. At the same time, Danish parents can enjoy one year of paid maternity leave, including 18 weeks of full-paid maternity leave for mothers and two weeks for fathers, and the rest of the couple can distribute the rest.
The South Korean government has given out bonuses for babies and also increased child allowances, as well as medical subsidies for fertility treatment and pregnancy. Health officials gave gifts such as beef, baby clothes and toys to newborns. South Korea is also building hundreds of kindergartens and daycare centers. In Seoul, every bus and subway has pink seats reserved for pregnant women. The South Korean government has spent more than $178 billion over the past 15 years encouraging women to have more children, but this month Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki acknowledged that progress has not been enough. In many families, the shift feels cultural and permanent.
Russia has established a "Mother Fund" since 2007. Families with at least two children can apply for this subsidy within three years after the child is born, with a total amount of more than 460,000 rubles (about 4600 pounds). Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed in January 2020 to expand the scale of maternity subsidies, extend the scope of subsidies to all families with children, and increase the amount to nearly 620,000 rubles.
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